Nov 14: California Flood Threat, NE Rain & Chill, November Warmth

The California flood threat is well underway with our stations across Ventura county really cashing in today with every station already over 1" of rainfall (As a reminder the average November rainfall for Oxnard is just around 1" and these locations received that much in a day):

While the region desperately needs the rain, there is sometimes too much of a good thing and heavy rain will cause trouble into early next week with an additional 4+" of rain possible:

A brief lull Friday afternoon and evening will come to a screeching halt as an extremely heavy band of rain will move through early Sat AM. The future radar loop below goes from 5 pm PT on Nov 14 to 5pm PT on Nov 15:

Not surprisingly, the WPC has issued a moderate chance for flash flooding for much of the Los Angeles area on Saturday:

Residents in the area should prepare for the potential of flash flooding and mudslides, especially on and near any burn areas. 

For the rest of the country, the weather will remain mostly quiet until some of these western systems move eastward. The one exception will be the Northeast this weekend where the temperatures will stay chilly and there's a chance for rain, snow, and some ice. You can see a general timing for the precipitation below with showers moving into the interior Northeast by Saturday afternoon, and rain, snow, and some sleet or freezing rain moving across the region overnight and ending by midday Sunday:

The chill will remain over the Northeast for the next 7 days with the center of the country really experiencing a warm period. The below image shows the 7 day temperature anomaly from the Euro model ensemble:

It does appear that by the middle to end of next week, the Western systems start moving into the center of the country and there's a strong signal for heavy rain and even some storms that could be severe. The below image shows the 72 hr rainfall ending next Saturday (Nov 22) morning:

Unfortunately, some of the places that need the rain most, like Northern Florida and South Georgia receive very little from this system. Still, places across the Central US need the rain as well as you can see from current drought monitor:

We will end today's blog with an early look at Thanksgiving week. It is way too early to talk specifics but it does look like an active storm pattern will be setting up but likely a warm one with limited wintry precip expected except for the Mountain West. The below images are the 7 day precipitation and temperature anomaly Nov 22 - 29: