There is finally some consensus in the forecast for Melissa. Unfortunately, it isn't good news for places like Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba not to mention the Turks & Caicos and Bahamas next week. First up, here's the latest forecast from the NHC:
Melissa will continue to meander over the Caribbean into the weekend followed by a turn west before it gets turned northeast by a trough across the Eastern US. The ensembles demonstrate this idea nicely:
The first impact from Melissa will be the extreme rainfall over Jamaica and the southern side of Hispaniola. The below image is in millimeters but the circled area is about 10+" of rain, which will be catastrophic to the mountainous terrain of those islands:
The storm is expected to strengthen to a major Hurricane due to lowering wind shear and extremely warm ocean water. Where it makes that west turn and eventual northeast turn will determine who gets the worst of the wind and surge in addition to the heavy rainfall. Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should all be monitoring the storm as we still likely have almost a week before it clears the area.
Before we discuss Melissa and the potential (if any) impacts on it will have on the States, let's look at a couple of other weather stories across the US. First up, an atmospheric river will bring rounds of rain to the Pacific Northwest where rainy season is well underway:
Through Tuesday, 2-5" of rain will fall along the Pacific Coast from Washinton to Northern California:
That's not the only place expected to get rain this weekend. An upper-level low will traverse the South, bringing much needed rainfall to a region where drought has started to increase drastically over the past several weeks:
Past this weekend, a convoluted pattern is setting up as we head closer to Halloween where a strong upper-level trough could lead to a potential coastal system and some interaction with Melissa. While it is unlikely at this point, there's still a chance Melissa has some impact to the East coast and it's forecast should be watched closely:
Too far away for specifics for Halloween night but the trend is for cooler than average weather over most of the Eastern US with an above_average Western US:
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