Last week, the NHC designated invest 91L in the main development region of the Atlantic Basin with odds getting as high as 90% for development on Friday morning:
However, model support for development quickly waned and by Saturday, the NHC dropped the development odds to 0%:
And now, we are quickly approaching the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season (September 10th) and are not expecting anything to develop for at least another week.
Where do we look for development this time of year? Well, the entire basin is still pretty much wide open for development possibilities from September 11 - 20 with anything from the Main Development Region (MDR) to the Gulf as a possible origin point:
That said, what do the weeks ahead look to bring? While the NHC isn't currently monitoring any possible systems, there are signs in the models that the later half of September could bring an uptick in tropical development. First up is the Gulf where the GFS has been hinting at the possibility of a disturbance originating from the Central America Gyre and moving north into the Gulf. This scenario is being depicted in the operational and ensembles:
The GFS tends to have a bias for storms to develop in this manner so its not something we need to worry about just yet, especially since the Euro and its ensembles show no such thing:
As for the MDR, both main global models and the AI models (Euro and Google) do show the potential for development after the middle of the month:
This is still over a week away however and not something to concern ourselves with just yet. For now, enjoy the quiet and keep your hurricane season preparations ready!