On the Radar with Jess

Severe Subsides but Flooding Potential Increases for Memorial Day Weekend

Written by Jessica Arnoldy | May 20, 2026 9:30:06 PM

After an active period of severe weather, the attention turns to the potential for heavy rain and flooding as we head into Memorial Day weekend. While the heaviest rain will be located over the Southern Plains, much of the East will also experience the chance for rain and storms. 

Flooding Potential for Southern Plains

The Southern Plains will be the focus for flood threats through the holiday weekend. The totals through Monday could be over 5" in some locations, including the Houston area which is particularly vulnerable to flash flooding: 

The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk for excessive rainfall for parts of the Southern Plains Thursday, Saturday and Sunday: 

Thursday: 

Saturday:

Sunday: 

Eastern US Storm Chances

While the Eastern US won't get quite as much rain, there will still be the chance for rain and storms just about everyday. Totals will be highest across the Southeast. Below is the rainfall forecast through Memorial Day: 

While this is welcome rain due to the ongoing drought, it comes at a bad time with so many outdoor activities this time of year. This is a reminder to stay vigilant and seek shelter if you see lightning or hear thunder. In addition to much needed rain, the stormy pattern will keep temperatures cooler than they have been this week. 

Florida Stays Mostly Dry and Hot

As you can see from the rainfall forecast above, Florida will be the one place in the East that doesn't get a ton of storms this holiday weekend. The good news is that after the holiday weekend, the last week of May into the first part of June looks to have above average rainfall for the drought-stricken state. Below is the precipitation anomaly May 25 - June 1: