The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is underway, and early forecasts suggest it could be quieter than average. Both NOAA and Colorado State University are predicting below-average tropical activity this year, largely due to the development of a potentially historic El Niño.
At first glance, that sounds like good news.
But history shows that fewer storms do not necessarily mean fewer impacts. Some of the strongest El Niño years on record produced fewer tropical systems overall while still generating destructive hurricanes, significant flooding, and costly damage. Regardless of the seasonal forecast, now is the time to review your hurricane preparedness plans and ensure your organization is ready before activity beings to increase later this summer.
As we look ahead to the heart of hurricane season, the biggest question isn't just how many storms will form, but where they will form and how much warning communities will have before they arrive.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season finished slightly below average with 13 named storms and five hurricanes. However, four of those hurricanes became major hurricanes, including three Category 5 storms:
The season serves as a reminder that storm count alone does not determine impact. Even relatively quiet years can produce damaging weather, flooding, and major disruptions.
Both major seasonal outlooks point toward below-average Atlantic activity.
NOAA is forecasting a 55% chance of a below-normal season with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes:
Colorado State University reduced its initial forecast for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes to just 11 named storms, five hurricanes, and two major hurricanes on June 10th:
The primary reason driving the below-averge predictions is El Niño. Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific are warming rapidly, and forecasts indicate this event could reach approximately 3°C above average. This would make it one of the strongest El Niño events on record.
For the Atlantic Basin, El Niño typically increases upper-level wind shear, which disrupts tropical development and often limits the number of storms that can strengthen into hurricanes.
While El Niño often suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, it can also create a different challenge. Many of the storms that do form develop closer to land. There are two recent examples that support this theory.
The 1997 Atlantic season produced only seven named storms, three hurricanes, and one major hurricane. Just one storm made landfall in the United States:
That storm was Hurricane Danny. Danny developed from a non-tropical system, formed close to the Gulf Coast, and made landfall within just two days. It eventually produced nearly 37 inches of rainfall near Dauphin Island, Alabama.
The 2015 season was also influenced by a strong El Niño and finished with just 11 named storms and four hurricanes:
What stands out is that both U.S. landfalling systems formed close to the coastline, providing less lead time than the long-track hurricanes that develop near Africa and spend a week or more crossing the Atlantic. In fact, both storms Danny and Erika developed in the main development region but were weakened crossing into the Caribbean due to the increased shear associated with El Niño seasons.
This is one of the most important lessons from past El Niño seasons. Even when overall activity is reduced, communities may have less time to prepare for storms that develop close to home.
When people think about hurricanes, wind is usually the first hazard that comes to mind. After all, it is the parameter that determines a hurricane's category. In the below example you can see the wind speeds around New Orleans during Hurricane Francine's landfall in 2024:
But some of the most damaging impacts often come from other threats.
Freshwater flooding remains one of the deadliest hurricane hazards.
Hurricane Helene caused 79 fatalities from flooding alone, while the remnants of Hurricane Ida were responsible for 43 deaths across the Northeast in 2021. In the example below, you can see the flooding that occurred at our station in the Atlanta, GA area from Hurricane Helene:
The danger is not limited to coastal areas. Helene demonstrated how devastating inland flooding can become hundreds of miles from where a storm makes landfall.
Hurricanes can also produce numerous tornadoes, particularly in the right-front quadrant of the storm. Hurricane Milton generated 46 tornadoes in 2024, while Hurricane Ivan still holds the record with 117 tornadoes.
Because these tornadoes often develop quickly and have short lifespans, they can be difficult to warn for and easy to overlook amid the broader hurricane threat.
Storm surge continues to be one of the most destructive coastal hazards.
Hurricane Helene generated 5 to 7 feet of storm surge in parts of the Tampa Bay area despite making landfall far from the region. The example below shows the storm surge in Oldsmar, FL:
The example highlights an important reality: impacts are not always greatest near the point of landfall. Storm size, track, and local geography can dramatically influence surge potential.
While El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic activity, it often has the opposite effect in the Pacific.
The record-setting 2015 El Niño produced 26 named storms, 16 hurricanes, and 11 major hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific, while the Central Pacific experienced its most active season on record.
Increased Eastern Pacific activity can also enhance moisture flowing into the Southwest United States, supporting a more active summer monsoon. Forecasts are already calling for above-average rainfall across portions of the Southwest this summer, which would be welcome news following one of the region's driest winters on record.
Current forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University call for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA is forecasting 8-14 named storms, while Colorado State is predicting 11 named storms after its June update. A developing El Niño is the primary reason for the reduced outlook.
El Niño increases wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. Strong wind shear disrupts the development and organization of tropical systems, making it harder for storms to strengthen into hurricanes.
No. A below-average season can still produce significant impacts. The 2025 season had fewer storms than average, but four of its five hurricanes became major hurricanes. It only takes one storm making landfall near your location to create a memorable season.
Yes. Historical El Niño seasons such as 1997 and 2015 featured storms that developed much closer to the U.S. coastline than typical long-track Atlantic hurricanes. These storms can reduce preparation time for communities in their path.
Freshwater flooding is often one of the deadliest hurricane hazards. Heavy rainfall can cause flash flooding and river flooding hundreds of miles inland from where a storm makes landfall.
Yes. El Niño often increases tropical activity in the Eastern and Central Pacific. It can also contribute to a wetter Southwest monsoon season by providing additional moisture to the region during the summer months.
Forecasts suggest the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be less active than average. But a quieter season does not eliminate the risk of significant impacts.
History shows that strong El Niño years can still produce destructive storms, major flooding, tornado outbreaks, and dangerous storm surge. In some cases, these storms may even provide less preparation time because they form closer to the United States coastline.
Whether the season produces eight storms or eighteen, preparedness remains the same. It only takes one storm affecting your community to make a hurricane season memorable.