Six weeks into the Atlantic Hurricane Season, activity has been relatively quiet, but that doesn't mean weather threats are taking a break. While the tropics are expected to stay inactive in the short term, July is the climatological peak for flash flooding as slow-moving thunderstorms become more common. Here's where the hurricane season stands, why flooding becomes a greater concern this time of year, and what weather pattern emergency managers should watch over the coming week.
The Atlantic Hurricane season began on June 1 and the first named storm of the season, Arthur, developed on June 17th. Although Arthur remained a relatively weak tropical storm, it produced widespread heavy rainfall from Texas to Louisiana and across parts of the Southeast. In fact, a new 24 rainfall record was set in Louisiana when 29.06" of rain fell near Cottonport, LA thanks to the remnants of Arthur. You can see the footprint of the rainfall from Arthur below:
We mentioned earlier this year that Colorado State University had already lowered its initial forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Early this month, they lowered the forecast again:
July isn't typically an active month for tropical storm development across the Atlantic basin and so far this year, that's true. In fact, there hasn't been a single area highlighted for possible development by the NHC this month. That said, a few of our long range models did suggest the possibility of development in the Northern Gulf for next week. Below is the 3-day probability of a tropical depression from the July 12 8 pm update by the Euro model valid July 19-22:
Even with a quieter Atlantic expected this season, the Gulf and western Atlantic remain areas that can produce storms close to land with relatively little lead time. Those regions will continue to warrant close monitoring through the remainder of hurricane season.
In the month of July, the threat for severe weather usually wanes but the threat for flash flooding is at its highest. This can be seen in the monthly reports of tornadoes vs flash flooding. The cumulative tornado reports start to level out in July:
This is due to the jet stream retreating to the north. The jet stream typically provides the steering for storms and when it retreats north during the summer, weak steering winds are left behind in its place. Without stronger steering winds, thunderstorms often move slowly or repeatedly develop over the same location, significantly increasing flash flood potential. Combined with the high temperatures in July, these slow-moving storms can unload a lot of water.
Not surprisingly, flash flooding is likely across the country the rest of the week, especially Texas. In fact, through the morning of July 16, there is a high risk of flash flooding for the Texas Hill country:
Outside of the Texas flood threat, the rest of the country will be experiencing typical summer weather. Heat and storms will dominate the weather headlines for many.
Record heat is returning to the Northeast after a couple of relatively comfortable days. Highs will once again reach triple digits across much of the I-95 corridor, with several records likely as well:
This should be a short-lived heat wave though and below average temperatures are expected next week across the Midwest and Northeast:
After an exceptionally dry winter, the Southwest is hoping for an active monsoon to bring much needed precipitation. The next 3 days will bring a risk for excessive rain and flash flooding:
Wednesday's Outlook:
Friday's Outlook:
While the Atlantic Hurricane Season remains unusually quiet, the nation's weather hazards are shifting rather than disappearing. Flash flooding, dangerous heat, and localized heavy rainfall will pose the greatest operational challenges over the coming weeks. Emergency managers should continue monitoring local rainfall trends, heat indices, and forecast updates while maintaining tropical awareness as the climatological peak of hurricane season approaches in August and September.
Weather threats continue to evolve throughout the season. From flash flooding and dangerous heat to tropical systems later this summer, maintaining situational awareness is essential for timely decision making.
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Not necessarily. Some of the most impactful Atlantic hurricanes have occurred during the peak months of August and September even after slow starts to the season. Emergency managers should continue monitoring forecasts throughout the season.
During July, the jet stream typically shifts farther north, leaving weaker steering winds across much of the country. Thunderstorms often move more slowly or repeatedly track over the same areas, increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
While flash flooding can occur anywhere, the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southwest during monsoon season, and mountainous terrain are especially vulnerable to heavy rainfall and rapid runoff during the summer months.
Although seasonal forecasts have been lowered due to El Niño, tropical activity can still increase during the climatological peak of hurricane season. The Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic should continue to be monitored closely.