Despite being more than two months into Florida's rainy season, drought remains widespread across the state. While some areas have received beneficial rainfall in recent weeks, the rain has been scattered, leaving some locations much drier than others. Will the upcoming weather pattern bring the beneficial rain needed to provide meaningful drought relief?
At the start of the rainy season, nearly 24% of the state was experiencing exceptional drought while more than 80% of the state was classified in either extreme or exceptional drought:
The ongoing drought continues to strain water resources and has kept wildfire potential elevated across areas where rainfall has been lacking. Through July 26, Florida has recorded more than 2,900 wildfires that have burned over 246,000 acres statewide. Several active wildfires continue to burn across the state.
A wetter weather pattern is expected to develop across Florida through the end of July and into early August. The change begins with a stalled front draped across northern Florida, which will serve as a focus for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
The precipitable water forecast above illustrates just how moisture-rich the atmosphere will become. As deep tropical moisture interacts with the stalled front, conditions will become favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the peninsula. Higher atmospheric moisture also increases the potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially where storms repeatedly move across the same areas.
Unlike Florida's typical summertime pattern, where thunderstorms are driven primarily by the afternoon sea breezes, this setup will feature additional lift from the stalled front and an approaching disturbance. As a result, rainfall should be more widespread and persistent than is typical for late July.
While this pattern should bring beneficial rainfall to many areas, it is unlikely to erase the drought completely. Drought recovery is usually a gradual process that requires repeated rounds of widespread rainfall over several weeks rather than a single wet period.
Forecast rainfall is also expected to vary considerably across the state. Portions of South Florida are forecast to receive much less rain than areas farther north, meaning drought conditions there may change very little over the coming week.
Unfortunately, the wetter pattern may be relatively short-lived. Forecast guidance currently suggests below-average rainfall across much of Florida during the August 4 through August 11 period as high pressure begins to build back over the region.
Yes. While recent rainfall has improved conditions in many areas, portions of Florida remain in extreme drought, particularly across parts of the peninsula.
The expected rainfall should provide beneficial relief in many areas, but it is unlikely to eliminate the drought completely. Drought recovery typically requires multiple weeks of widespread rainfall.
Rainfall has been uneven, with some communities receiving frequent thunderstorms while others have remained much drier. This uneven distribution has slowed drought recovery.
A stalled front across northern Florida combined with increasing tropical moisture and an approaching upper-level disturbance will create a more favorable environment for widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Yes. While the rainfall will benefit drought conditions, slow-moving thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall that could lead to isolated flooding in some locations.