In today's blog, we'll break down the latest forecast for Tropical Depression Two, which is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha over the next day or so. We'll also examine Tuesday's significant severe weather threat across the Northeast, where damaging winds, flash flooding, and a few tornadoes are possible.
The second tropical system of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season developed on Sunday. Like Arthur, Tropical Depression Two formed close to home in the Gulf. Let's break down the latest forecast and the primary impacts expected as the system strengthens into Tropical Storm Bertha.
The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) takes Tropical Depression Two westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha before approaching the central Gulf Coast.
The good news is that significant strengthening is not expected. Most forecast models keep the system below hurricane intensity:
That is reflected in the official NHC forecast, which brings Bertha to a peak intensity of around 50 mph before landfall.
The primary coastal hazards will be dangerous rip currents and minor storm surge.
There is a storm surge watch up for the Alabama and Mississippi coast plus parts of the Louisiana coast:
Fortunately, surge amounts should be 2 to 4 feet:
Because the system is expected to remain relatively disorganized, the heaviest rainfall should stay over the Gulf waters.
Some heavy rain will still spread into portions of the Florida Panhandle, coastal Alabama and Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana, where localized flash flooding will be possible.
The Northeast experienced multiple rounds of severe weather and flash flooding over the weekend, and the active pattern will continue on Tuesday.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region under an Enhanced Risk which means a level 3 of 5 risk for severe storms:
Damaging straight-line winds appear to be the main hazard, although a few tornadoes and even large hail are possible. Storms will develop by late morning and last well into the evening hours. Below is a forecast radar from 12 pm ET to 12 am ET:
The I-95 corridor from Washington, DC, to New York City could experience multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Combined with saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall, this raises the risk for additional flash flooding. Flood Watches are already in effect for portions of the region.
Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha before reaching the central Gulf Coast, bringing minor coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents, and locally heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, emergency managers and residents across the Northeast should prepare for another active day of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and flash flooding.
Weather conditions can change quickly, especially during tropical systems and severe weather outbreaks. Real-time observations from Weatherstem weather stations, cameras, lightning sensors, and flood monitoring tools provide emergency managers and organizations with the situational awareness needed to make informed operational decisions before, during, and after hazardous weather events.
Yes. Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center indicate Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha as it moves west across the Gulf of Mexico.
Current forecasts indicate Bertha should remain below hurricane strength, with peak sustained winds near 50 mph before landfall.
The primary impacts include dangerous rip currents, minor storm surge along portions of the central Gulf Coast, and locally heavy rainfall that could produce isolated flash flooding.
A strong weather system moving across the region will interact with warm, humid air, creating favorable conditions for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rainfall.
An Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) issued by the Storm Prediction Center indicates numerous severe thunderstorms are possible, with damaging winds being the primary threat.