Oct 24: Jamaica Braces for Melissa

Melissa spent much of today organizing and strengthening with robust convection developing over the storm's center:

While not yet a hurricane, the official forecast from the NHC has it becoming one by later today and rapid intensification should bring it up to at least a major hurricane if not a Category 4:

The forecasts have locked onto a solution and it is bad news for Jamaica. The island nation should prepare for extremely heavy rain, damaging winds, and destructive surge. First of all, slow movement is expected this weekend due to the storm being stuck between two competing high pressures:

That slow movement over through the weekend and into next week will lead to catastrophic rainfall over the region:

As Melissa slowly moves in the Caribbean, the warm water and lessening wind shear will allow the storm to rapidly intensify and in fact could become the strongest storm on record to hit Jamaica. That title currently goes to Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 which moved over the island as a strong Category 3 storm:

Hurricane Sandy was the most recently hurricane to make landfall on the island in 2012 as a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds. That occurred 13 years ago today on October 24, 2021:

Once past Jamaica, Eastern Cuba followed by the Turks & Caicos are next in Melissa's path as shown by most model guidance: 

Back stateside, beneficial weekend rain will spread over much of the South while an atmospheric river brings heavy rain to the Pacific Northwest:

Once the weekend system departs, another upper low will dive down, bringing additional rain to the South and some rain to the Mid-Atlantic as well. In addition, a coastal low could develop from this system and increase the chance for gusty winds along the Eastern Seaboard. There's a lot of uncertainty with that system but the signal is there for widespread rain (Tue Night - Thu night shown below): 

And finally, Halloween is a week away, a holiday where weather can be a big factor. Right now, much of the country looks to remain dry but the potential Northeast system we mentioned above could still be hanging around the Northeast:

Temperature-wise, much of the Eastern US looks below average so keep that in mind while planning those last minute costumes: