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Jan 6: First Significant Storm of 2026

Jessica Arnoldy
Jessica Arnoldy

The first widespread weather event of 2026 will take place later this week. It will spread snow, rain, and storms from the Four Corners to the Eastern US. This system will come in two distinct waves that we will break down in today's weather update:

Thursday:

Weather map showing precipitation types across the United States, indicating areas of rain, snow, and potential thunderstorms for January 2026.

Friday:

Weather map showing precipitation types across the United States, including rain and snow forecast for various regions.

Saturday:

Weather map illustrating various precipitation types, including rain and snow forecasts, along with pressure systems across the United States.

First up will be much needed snow across the Four Corners, including Colorado and Utah. While California has made up for its early-season snow deficit, the interior West is still running well below where it should be this time of year with many stations reporting less than 50% of where they should be for snow pack:

Map showing snow water equivalent percentages across the Western United States, with color-coded markers indicating various levels of snow pack across states like California, Colorado, and New Mexico.

Snow will start across this region late Wednesday and last through Friday. While it won't completely erase the deficit, it will bring widespread snow especially to the higher elevations:

Weather forecast map showing total projected snowfall across the United States from the Four Corners to the Eastern US, with snow accumulation indicated in inches.

After bringing snow to the Southwest, the initial wave of precipitation then moves into the central part of the country and will bring mostly rain. Temperatures will be well-above average and even record-breaking, making it too warm for snow. The overnight lows will be the most impressive with over 130 record warm lows possible Thursday through Saturday morning:

Map showing record warm low temperatures across the central United States for Thursday, January 8, 2026, with temperatures marked in various cities.

Map showing record warm low temperatures for January 9, 2026, across the Eastern US, with annotations indicating locations and temperatures in degrees Fahrenheit.

Map displaying record warm low temperatures for Saturday, January 10, 2026, across the eastern United States, with numerical values indicating temperatures in various locations.

The first round of rain will be focused across the Central US and up into the Great Lakes. Below is the 48 hr rain forecast from 12 AM CT Wed to 12 AM CT Fri:

Precipitation forecast map showing expected rainfall and snow across the Southwestern and Central US, with color gradient indicating varying amounts.

This rain will also bring the chance for severe thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday:

Severe thunderstorms outlook map indicating areas of concern in the Central US for January 7-8, 2026, highlighting regions with varying risk levels.

Map showing the Day 3 Categorical Convective Outlook, highlighting regions in green and dark green indicating areas of marginal to slight thunderstorm risk across parts of the Central and Eastern United States, valid from January 8 to January 9, 2026.

For that same time period you can see very little snow is expected as it is just too warm:

Weather forecast map showing expected snow accumulation in the Southwest and Central US for January 6-9, 2026, with color gradients indicating snowfall amounts.

As the next wave of precipitation develops, it will meet cooler air brought down by the first round of rain. This means more snow will fall across the Central US especially into Iowa and Wisconsin. This snow will fall from Fri morning across the Southern Plains to early Sunday am across the Upper Midwest:

Weather forecast map showing expected snowfall amounts across the central United States from January 6 to January 8, 2026, with varying shades indicating different snowfall totals.

You can see the progression of both rounds of precipitation from early Thu AM to Sunday AM below:

Weather forecast map showing precipitation types across the Central US with rain and snow patterns indicated, along with isobars and pressure values.

For the Eastern part of the US, the main threat from this system will be rain and even some severe storms. Most of the precipitation for this region will fall as rain with only the areas near the Great Lakes getting snow like we mentioned above:

Weather map showing projected snowfall totals across the eastern United States for the period of January 6-12, 2026.

The rain will be heavy at times, especially across the Southeast from Eastern Tennessee to Mississippi:

Weather forecast map showing predicted precipitation in the Eastern US, with varying amounts of rain represented by different colors.

This is good news for parts of the Southeast that have seen drought expand over the Fall and Winter months:

Map showing drought intensity across the Southeastern United States with color-coded categories ranging from 'None' to 'Exceptional Drought'.

Unfortunately, not much of that rain will make it to the area that needs it most, Florida, with only the far Western Panhandle expected to get anything significant:

Map showing total precipitation forecast across the southeastern United States, with varying amounts of rain and a color gradient indicating different precipitation levels.

 

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