On The Radar with Jess

Nov 21: Thanksgiving Travel Outlook

Jessica Arnoldy Jessica Arnoldy

Thanksgiving Travel is here and fortunately it looks like the weather will be mostly cooperative with just a couple of minor systems to track. The gif below shows the precip from Sat am to next Wed evening:

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1763726400-1763812800-1764201600-10

First up is this weekend where light rain will impact the Eastern US and moderate rain will hit the Southwest:

Image 2-Nov-21-2025-09-35-13-8369-PMMoving on to Sunday, that Eastern rain is well offshore while the Southwest rain spreads into the 4 corners and parts of Texas. The Pacific NW also gets rain but that's expected this time of year:

Image 3-Nov-21-2025-09-35-13-8747-PM

On Monday, the system from the Southwest moves further east into the Central part of the country, spreading rain and some storms: 

Image 4-Nov-21-2025-09-35-13-4146-PMThe system loses some of its energy as  it moves east for Tuesday and only light to moderate precip amounts are expected: 

Image 5-Nov-21-2025-09-35-14-1250-PMPlaces across the Southeast will be thankful for any rain they can get as drought has really increased across the region this fall:

20251118_southeast_textBy Wednesday, this system is starting to exit the East coast so hopefully minimal travel impacts will be had the day before Thanksgiving: 

Image 6-Nov-21-2025-09-35-13-8370-PMThe temperatures during this time frame will be mostly above average. Below is the temperature anomaly Sat AM through Thu AM:

Image 7-Nov-21-2025-09-35-14-4270-PMThis means that very little frozen precipitation will fall with only the highest elevations and the Canadian border receiving snow:

Image 8-Nov-21-2025-09-35-12-1017-PMFor the return trip, we will look at things more generally as it is still relatively far way. There is signs that another system to track post Thanksgiving. This is shown in the 72 hour precip from the Euro ensemble below from Thanksgiving evening to Sun evening: 

Image 9-Nov-21-2025-09-35-13-8827-PMAfter that, it does look like an arctic air mass will move into the country, setting up a potential volatile pattern with a warm Southeast still in place:

Image 11-Nov-21-2025-09-35-12-7088-PM

 

 

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Jessica Arnoldy, Director of Meteorology Services at Weatherstem
Jessica Arnoldy
Director, Content and Meteorology Services

Jessica brings nearly two decades of broadcast and operational meteorology experience to Weatherstem. She spent 19.5 years as a senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel and holds a BS from Georgia Tech and MS from Penn State. She writes On The Radar to help emergency managers, athletic directors, and operations teams understand what severe weather means for their specific situations.

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