On the Radar with Jess
The eastern half of the US has been plagued by rain, storms, and even snow today and you can see both systems responsible for this weather nicely on the satellite loop:
A line of strong storms moved through the Atlanta area this morning, bringing a nice shelf cloud and causing a ground stop at Hartsfield International Airport:
Later this afternoon, rain slowed travel along I-270 in Frederick, MD:
Tomorrow, rain totals will be light as the system currently bringing snow to the Upper Midwest swings through the Great Lakes and our focus will turn to the lake effect snow expected behind it. The below forecast loop goes from Wed 7 am ET to Thu at 1 pm ET:
Speaking of the Upper Midwest snow, the system has been spreading signifcant snow across the Dakotas and Minnesota today:
Snow totals so far have mostly been in the 4-6" range as expected but there are a couple of spots getting close to 8":
From Tue night to Wed Night the snow will expand further east into Minnesota and Wisconsin with a large area of 6"+ expected just north of Minneapolis and over a foot expected in the Northern part of Wisconsin thanks to some lake enhancement and eventually lake effect snow:
Personally we can't wait to see the camera at our station in Oshkosh, WI. Check it out here tomorrow to see the snow falling.
Lake effect snow will ramp up behind this synoptic snow and should be closely monitored to plan out the best period to travel the next couple of days. The below forecast is the 2 day snow total from Wed 7 pm ET to Fri 7 pm ET:
On to the weekend system which continues to increase in severity as we get a clearer picture of what will happen. The below image is a snapshot valid 1 pm ET on Saturday which shows a significant system moving into the center of the country, not only bringing rain and storms to the southern Plains including places like Kansas City and Dallas but widespread snow to the Midwest, including places like Chicago:
This far in advance we like to look at ensemble forecasts to discuss snowfall totals. The Euro ensemble shows a strong signal for a significant snow event for the Upper Midwest:
Let's take a closer look at Chicago. We like to look at snowfall trends to get an idea of what to expect more than 3 days in advance. Below is the last several model runs showing the 24 hour snowfall and it is obvious that the trend is to increase the amounts:. This snow would fall between Sat morning and Sunday afternoon so time your travel appropriately:
By Sunday afternoon, the snow is winding down as the main low pressure center moves into Canada but rain and storms will extend into the South:
As far as temperatures go, the cold air that filters in to the country behind the midweek system looks to hang around well into the first week of December and beyond. Below is the 7 day temperature anomaly from Thanksgiving Day to December 4th:
Let's pick on Chicago again and take a look at their extended temperature forecast. Once they go below freezing on Thursday, they look to stay that way for the extended future:
As they say, winter is coming and it looks to start off with a bang!
