On the Radar with Jess
Earlier this week we discussed the potential for Southern California rain and how that system would eventually bring the chance for severe weather to parts of the Central US. The rain over Southern California was impressive for this early in the season and even came with the first severe thunderstorm watch to be issued for parts of Southern California since January of 2008:
Watch the system move through several of our stations in Ventura County:
The system that caused the rain in Southern California will make its way to the center of the US this weekend, bringing severe weather to places like Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana: 
Right now, it appears the main threat from this system will be damaging winds but we can fine tune that information as we get closer to the event. In addition, timing right now looks to have storms fire up by early afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. The image below shows the potential lightning from the Euro model for Sat 1 pm central to Sun 1 am central:
We will update timing later this week once we have more information. This is the type of briefing you can expect 3 days before an event if you used our newly launched meteorology services. Each day closer to an event can provide more specific details and timing. Interested in learning more? Reach out here: https://company.weatherstem.com/meteorology-services/
Now on to the Atlantic Hurricane season which is still showing signs of activity. It is mid October and while we are in the home stretch, there have been some significant storms this time of year. For example, Hurricane Zeta made landfall in Louisiana on October 28th, 2020, Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Southwest Florida on October 24th, 2005, and Sandy made landfall in New Jersey as a strong post-tropical cyclone on October 29th, 2012. During this time of year, we turn our attention to the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for origins and tracks:
Models have locked on to a consensus in something developing in the Caribbean in about a week or so. Below are the last several runs of the 3-day chance of a tropical depression from the EURO, all lighting up the Caribbean:
It isn't just the Euro as both the GFS and the Google AI model that has performed really well this season also indicate something could develop:
From there, it is too early to tell where it will go if/when it develops Scenarios include turning north well before the US, burying itself into Central America, or being pulled north into the Gulf. While we don't know exactly what will happen with this potential system, to be able to even mention this as a possibility when it is still a week away from development is a testament to how far weather forecasting has come.
