On the Radar with Jess
Imelda strengthened to the fourth hurricane of the 2025 season earlier in the day on Tuesday. The satellite image of it and Humberto off the southeast coast is one of the more impressive things you'll see. In fact, according to Michael Lowry, the two hurricanes were less than 500 miles apart at 8 am Tuesday morning, the closest on record in the satellite era:
It's not very often we are thankful for a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean but without Humberto to pull Imelda away, we'd likely be talking about a landfalling hurricane along the Southeast coast of the US today. Still, the combination of the two storms will continue to keep the surf elevated along the Eastern US through the week with a high rip current risk and strong waves:
NHC Rip Current Risk for Oct 1
Euro Wave Forecast Oct 1 - Oct 4 (Courtesy weatherbell.com)
Bermuda should prepare for strong, damaging winds as you can see from the NHC Hurricane-force wind probabilities:
It will depend on the exact path as it always does with storms, especially those that could impact Bermuda due to its location in the middle of the Atlantic. The euro brings the core of strongest winds right over the tiny island nation while the GFS goes just to the south:
GFS:
Euro:
With today being the last day of September, we are 2/3rds through the Atlantic Hurricane season with two full months left to go. Is there anything else behind Humberto and Imelda? The NHC currently isn't monitoring any other systems but there are some signs that we aren't done. First up is this weekend into early next week where there is a small signal for a weak disturbance to bring at least some rain to the Southeast and Gulf. Below is the 4-day rainfall total from the Euro Ensemble Thursday through next Tuesday morning:
In addition, the GFS, Euro, and Google AI ensembles all have a weak signal for a potential disturbance with the Euro and Google AI being the more aggressive of the three models:
Back in the main development region, the signal we mentioned yesterday is still there and we may get another system to track through the basin:
It's a long ways away though so for now, we just watch and stay vigilant as we head to the final two months of the season.
