In yesterday's On the Radar blog, we discussed how forecast models had hinted at the possibility of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico, but the odds remained low. Since then, confidence has increased. In today's update, we'll look at the latest National Hurricane Center outlook and explain why, regardless of whether a tropical system develops, beneficial rainfall may be headed to drought-stricken portions of Florida.
NHC Monitoring Two Potential Areas for Development
As of the 2 pm update on Wednesday, July 15, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas for possible development:
The tropical wave just off the coast of Africa has only a 10% chance of development despite appearing well organized on satellite imagery:
It will likely encounter a hostile environment of high wind shear and dry air as it moves across the Atlantic Basin over the next several days, which should significantly limit its chances for development.
The disturbance near the Southeast coast is the system with the greatest potential to affect the United States over the next several days. Although satellite imagery currently shows little organization, forecast guidance has become more favorable for an area of low pressure to develop this weekend.
Overnight and morning runs of models showed an increase in the chances for an area of low pressure to develop, which is why the NHC began highlighting the area in the first place. The overnight run of the Euro model showed several ensemble members developing an area of low pressure somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast to the Southeast coast early next week:
This morning's run showed a similar solution:
The Euro model isn't the only model showing this solution. The Google AI model has also shown an uptick in development chances, as has the Euro AI model. The exact location and track of the developing low will determine how much time it has over water to organize before approaching land. This will be worth monitoring over the coming days.
Beneficial Florida Rain Regardless of Development
Regardless of whether a tropical system develops, the more important story for Florida may be the rainfall itself. Portions of the state remain in drought, and increasing tropical moisture could bring widespread beneficial rainfall over the coming week. In fact, the latest drought monitor shows 16% of the state in extreme drought, with the worst locations located along the Big Bend and the Tampa Bay area:
Forecasts call for widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches through next week, with locally higher amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible across the Tampa Bay area.
While this rainfall will be beneficial for many drought-stricken areas, periods of heavy rain could still produce localized flooding, particularly in urban areas or locations that receive repeated rounds of thunderstorms. Emergency managers should monitor rainfall trends closely, even if no tropical cyclone develops.
Bottom Line
Although neither disturbance is expected to become a significant tropical cyclone in the immediate future, the Atlantic is beginning to show signs of increased activity. More importantly, tropical moisture associated with the southeastern disturbance could provide meaningful drought relief across parts of Florida while also creating a localized flash flood risk.
Tropical systems don't have to become named storms to produce meaningful impacts. Real-time weather observations, live cameras, lightning detection, and decision-support tools help emergency managers maintain situational awareness as conditions evolve.
Learn how Weatherstem helps organizations monitor tropical weather before impacts occur. Contact us to learn more about our real-time weather monitoring and decision-support solutions.
Why is the National Hurricane Center monitoring two tropical areas?
The National Hurricane Center identifies areas where environmental conditions may support tropical development over the coming days. These outlooks help emergency managers and the public monitor changing conditions before a tropical cyclone forms.
Does a tropical disturbance have to become a named storm to produce impacts?
No. Even disorganized tropical systems can produce heavy rainfall, localized flooding, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning. Operational planning should focus on expected impacts rather than storm classification alone.
Why could Florida receive beneficial rainfall from this system?
Increasing tropical moisture is expected to spread across portions of Florida regardless of whether a tropical cyclone develops. This rainfall could help reduce drought conditions, although localized flooding remains possible where heavier rain occurs.
How likely is tropical development in the Gulf?
Development remains uncertain. Forecast models have become more favorable, prompting the National Hurricane Center to highlight the area, but environmental conditions over the coming days will determine whether a tropical depression forms.
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