The Western storm we've been discussing much of this week is well underway as you can see in the below water vapor image:

We have several stations across southern California to watch the storm and even one in the foothills of the Sierra where you can track the progress of this storm:

https://oxnard.weatherstem.com

https://calaveras.weatherstem.com/bretharte

Our station in Calaveras County has already received over half an inch of rain while the Southern California stations remain dry:

The day has looked like the below time lapse across much of Northern California:

It will take until early Friday for the heavy rain to move into Southern California as you can see in the below future radar animation. Once it starts, though, it won't let up until later this weekend:

By early Mon AM, 3- 5" of rain are possible across the region, which will lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially over any burn scars from the devastating fires earlier this year:

Rain Total Through Sun 10 pm PT

It appears that even past this weekend, the Western storm track will remain active with above average precipitation expected in the 6-10 day time frame: 

It is too early to talk about the potential downstream impacts from the Western storminess but in the above image you can see a signal for above average precipitation chances in the center of the country. It does look like we will get an active pattern for storms as we head toward the end of the month, which doesn't bode well for Thanksgiving travel. 

It does look like the Northeast will remain not only chilly through the weekend but will get a weak system that will bring rain, snow, and even freezing rain or sleet. First up the snow looks to remain confined to Northern New England and Canada with the highest amounts in the mountains and a general 3-5" expected:

Snow Forecast Through Mon 1 AM ET

For icing potential, it is best to look at probabilities this far out with a decent signal showing up for at least .10" of freezing rain possible. Remember, we discussed why ice is possible in yesterday's blog

24-HR Prob of Freezing Rain > .10"

Finally, on to temperatures. We mentioned the Northeast will be the lone cool spot over the next week as the rest of the country gets a nice mild spell that will really last much of the rest of the month:

Euro 7 day Temp Anomaly 11/14-21

There is still a strong signal for colder weather to take over much of the country by the time December (and the official start to Meteorological Winter) comes around. Below is the 7 day temperature anomaly from the long-range Euro model for the first week of December:

The one warm location would be the Southeast but a temperature pattern like this would indicate an active storm track and that is reflected in the precipitation anomaly for that same week:

While hurricane season is winding down, weather becomes just as important as we head into Winter with busy holiday travel. We will keep you posted on what the next season will bring.